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NEW YORK: The biggest US banks are expected to report weaker third-quarter profits as the economy slowed and volatile markets put the brakes on dealmaking.
Four of the nation’s largest lenders –JPMorgan Chase & Co, Wells Fargo & Co, Citigroup Inc and Morgan Stanley – will report third-quarter earnings this week.
The results are expected to show a slide in net income after turbulent markets choked off investment-banking activity and lenders set aside more rainy-day funds to cover losses from borrowers who fall behind on their payments.
Banks typically earn more when interest rates rise because they can charge customers more to borrow. But their fortunes are also tied to the health of the broader economy.
The Federal Reserve has raised the benchmark rate from near zero in March to the current range of 3% to 3.25% and signalled more increases.,
While rising rates tend to buoy bank profits, the broader risk of an economic downturn sparked by high inflation, supply-chain bottlenecks and the war in Ukraine could weigh on future earnings.
Higher rates are expected to boost net interest income at the two largest US banks, JPMorgan and Bank of America Corp, but the jump in borrowing costs has also hurt their mortgage and auto-lending businesses by cooling demand.
“The concern is that rates will rise too much and slow the economy or push it into a recession,” said Matt O’Connor, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a research note.
Analysts expect profit at JPMorgan to drop 24%, while net income at Citigroup and Wells Fargo is forecast to decline 32% and 17%, respectively, according to Refinitiv I/B/E/S data.
Investment-banking powerhouse Goldman Sachs Group Inc is expected to report a 46% plunge in profit when it reports on Oct 18, while earnings at rival Morgan Stanley are seen falling 28%.
The drop comes as corporations’ interest in mergers, acquisitions and initial public offerings dried up. — Reuters
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